Simulating future urban growth in the city of Kahramanmaras, Turkey from 2009 to 2040.

ABSTRACT

City of Kahramanmaras has witnessed a rapid growth in the last five decades due to its agricultural and industrial potential. Urbanization has brought great challenges to the sustainable development of cities, especially in developing countries. A modeling system that could provide regional assessments of future development and explore the potential impacts of different regional management scenarios would be useful for the future health of the cities. The main goal of this study was to create a modeling system capable of depicting, quantitatively and graphically, the growth impacts of two land use policies and trends in the city of Kahramanmaras. Given its success with regional scale simulation, its ability to incorporate different levels of land protection through an “excluded” layer, and the relative ease of implementation and computation, the model developed by Keith Clarke from University of California at Santa Barbara, known as SLEUTH, was adopted for this study. SLEUTH is a pixel-based cellular automaton (CA) model and has been applied to several cities worldwide successfully. The model was calibrated using historic time series of developed areas derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery between 1984 and 2009, and future growth was projected out to 2040. Two alternative growth scenarios were modeled (1) current trends, and (2) managed growth regions with high landscape potential were protected from urbanization. This application of the SLEUTH model demonstrates an ability to address a range of regional planning issues and provides useful information for the cities’ future planning and development.