Screening of early risk factors and prediction of prognosis in patients with diquat poisoning / 中华急诊医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To analyze the change characteristics of creatinine level in the early stage of patients with diquat (DQ) poisoning, and to explore the early risk factors and the value of prognosis.Methods:A retrospective analysis was carried out on patients with DQ admitted to the the first affiliated hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2020 to June 2022. The DQ patients were divided into death group and the survival group according to the 28 days survival status after posioning. The basic data and serum indexes and blood gas analysis of the patients on day 1 (D1), day 3 (D3) and day 5 (D5) were collected. The difference of clinical features between the two groups was analyzed, the variables were screened by multiple logistic regression analysis, and the predictive value of the variables was evaluated by drawing receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve).Results:A total of 88 patients were included, including 40 patients in the survival group and 48 patients in the death group. The toxic dose in death group was significantly higher than that in survival group [100(40.00, 120.00) mL vs. 50.00(20.00, 90.00) mL, P=0.003]. The higher the toxic dose, the higher the fatality rate. All 4 patients with oral doses greater than 200 mL died. Compared with the survival group, the levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (D3, D5), creatinine (CR) (D3, D5), blood amylase (AMY) (D5) and oxygen partial pressure (PaO 2) (D5) in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group (all P<0.05). Multiple Logistic regression analysis showed that CR (D3) and AMY(D5) were independent risk factors for death after poisoning, and PaO 2(D5) was independent protective factor. ROC curve showed that the areas under ROC curve of CR (D3), AMY (D5) and PaO 2 (D5) were 0.814, 0.741 and 0.702, respectively. Conclusion:The higher the oral dose, the higher the death rate. After admission, CR(D3), AMY (D5) and PaO 2 (D5) were independent factors influencing the prognosis of DQ poisoning. In particular, CR (D3) is more effective in predicting death after poisoning.