Establishment and validation of a nomogram predictive model for endoscopic electrocoagulation hemostasis in elderly patients with acute epistaxis / 中国内镜杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the relevant risk factors for endoscopic electrocoagulation hemostasis in elderly patients with acute epistaxis,and establish and validate a nomogram prediction model to facilitate early selection of appropriate hemostasis methods in clinical practice.Methods Clinical data of 228 elderly patients with unilateral acute epistaxis from January 2018 to December 2022 were collected.There were two groups,the electrocoagulation group(n = 112)and the conservative packing group(n = 116),based on whether they received endoscopic electrocoagulation hemostasis.Analysis was performed to explore the independent risk factors for requiring endoscopic electrocoagulation hemostasis.A nomogram prediction model was established based on the multivariate results,and receiver operator characteristic curve(ROC curve),calibration curve and clinical decision curve analysis(DCA)were used to evaluate the predictive performance and consistency of the model.Results According to the research results,the univariate analysis showed that age,hypertension,cardiovascular disease,anticoagulant use,and bleeding site were associated with endoscopic electrocoagulation hemostasis(P<0.05).The multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis revealed that older age,the presence of hypertension,long-term use of anticoagulants,and bleeding sites located in the posterior nasal region or unknown location were associated with a higher likelihood of undergoing endoscopic electrocoagulation hemostasis(P<0.05).Based on these independent risk factors,a nomogram model for predicting endoscopic electrocoagulation hemostasis for acute epistaxis in elderly patients was established,the area under the curve(AUC)was 0.856(95%CI:0.805～0.907).The calibration curve and DCA showed that the use of the nomogram model could benefit patients over a wide range of diagnostic threshold probabilities.Conclusion A nomogram model based on age,hypertension,anticoagulant use,and bleeding site to predict the risk of endoscopic electrocoagulation hemostasis in elderly patients with acute epistaxis has a good predicted performance.