A study of GM (1, 1) model for predicting the incidence trends of pneumoconiosis cases of an area / 中华劳动卫生职业病杂志

ABSTRACT

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore the application of the gray series model GM (1, 1) in predicting trends in the incidence of pneumoconiosis and evaluate its degree of predicted precision.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Analyzing the incidence of pneumoconiosis in this region from 2009 to 2013, and predicting the incidence of pneumoconiosis of the area in 2014-2016 by establishing GM (1, 1) according to the gray system theory.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Using occupational pneumoconiosis population data from 2009 to 2013, to establish GM (1, 1) model yt = 1396.89e(0.12(t-1)), α = -0.12, µ = 147.2. The pneumoconiosis in 2014, 2015, 2016 were predicted respectively 51, 47, 43 cases based on the GM (1, 1) model, and C value of model is 0.15, P value is 1, all of them meet the requirements of model predictions. It shows the cases of pneumoconiosis are rising significantly.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>GM (1, 1) model can be used to predict the recent trend in the incidence of pneumoconiosis.</p>