Variability Dependent on the Previous Year in the Pass Rate of the National Examination for Physicians' License of Japan / 医学教育

ABSTRACT

The pattern of variability in the pass rate of the national examination for physicians' license of Japan was analyzed. The variation in the pass rate of a medical school in a given year was moderately dependent on the variation in the pass rate in the previous year. There was a moderate negative correlation (r =-0.454, n=1262) between the variations in the pass rates in consecutive years. We termed this phenomenon “the previous-year effect.” The previous-year effect was greatest (r =-0.494, n=475) when the average pass rate of all medical schools changed from decrease to increase, but was smaller (r =-0.393, n=551) when the average pass rate changed from increase to decrease. These phenomena can be explained by interactions between the factors of examinees and examiners.