Risk factors of the onset of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome in patients with severe acute pancreatitis / 中华消化外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the value of early evaluation in predicting the onset of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Methods The clinical data of 338 patients with SAP who had been admitted to Tianjin Nankai Hospital from January 1998 to September 2008 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into MODS group (n = 163) and control group (n = 175) according to whether they did or did not have MODS. Risk factors causing MODS were analyzed by t test and Logistic regression analysis. Results The factors leading to the MODS included white blood cells count≥ 16 ×109/L, serum creatinine≥ 180 μmol/L, serum calcium≥2.5 mmol/L, c-reactive protein≥ 120 mg/L and pH value of blood≥7.35 (χ2 = 51.720, 21.421, 12.393, P < 0.05). The total cholesterol was a protective factor when it was 3.67-5.23 mmol/L. Conclusions Infection, renal insufficiency and hypercalcinemia are early predictive factors for MODS, and infection is the strongest predictive factor. Appropriate elevated total cholesterol can reduce the incidence of MODS.