The Prediction on the Medical Cost under Aging Population and Economic Growth / 中国卫生经济

ABSTRACT

In next several decades, medical costs are going to increase significantly with the obvious increase of ageing population. The development trend of medical cost was predicted on the basis of over-cost growth model. The over-cost growth and the influencing factors of population and economics were first used to construct the time series model, then Monte Carlo approach was used in random simulation and finally the prediction result of medical cost in China was received.