MELD versus Child-Turcotte-Pugh score in predicting survival in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt / 第三军医大学学报

ABSTRACT

Objective To compare the predictive power of model for end-stage liver disease(MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh(CTP) on the cirrhotic patients who underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS).Methods A total of 110 patients(98 males and 12 females) undergoing TIPS from January 2004 to March 2008 in our hospital were analyzed.Data of all patients were analyzed retrospectively.The main statistical tests included Kaplan-Merier analysis to compare survival respectively,and the area of receiver operating characteristics(ROC) to compare the performance of the 2 models for predicting 3-month,1-year,and 2-year mortality.Results The survival rate rate of the patients whose MELD score under 15 showed significantly higher than the patients above MELD score 15.The area of ROC that predicting survival was 0.866 and 0.863 at 3 months,0.755 and 0.739 at 1-year,0.729 and 0.750 at 2-years respectively for the MELD and the CTP score.Conclusion Both MELD and CTP score can predict short-term survival accuracy,but poor in long-term.However,the MELD has overcome the shortcomings of CTP,and may be worth using in clinical.