Model for end-stage liver disease can predicte short-term prognosis of patients with sub-acute severe hepatitis / 重庆医科大学学报

ABSTRACT

Objective:To evaluate the value ofmodel for end-stage liver disease(MELD)score for predictivingthe short-term prognosis of the sub-acute severe hepatitis.Methods:A total of 73 patients with sub-acute severe hepatitis were enrolled in this study.The information of first day admitted to the hospital was used to calculate MELD score.We used ROC curves and area under the curve to evaluate its prognostic value.Results:A total of 32 patients died(43.8%)in 3 months,which have higher MELE score than the survival of patients(t=3.125,P=0.002).The area under the curve for predicting prognosis was 0.756(P=0.000 1),95%CI[0.646～0.866]. When the cutoff value was 26,the predicted sensitivity was 0.906,the specificity was 0.854,and the accuracy was 0.877.Conclusion: Model for end-stage liver disease has a good predicting value of short-term prognosis for patients with sub-acute severe viral hepatitis.