Application of State Space model in the evaluation of the prevention and control for mumps / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in 2012 and 2014,and to explore the preventive effect of the second dose of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) in mumps in Shandong province.Methods On the basis of certain model assumptions,a Space State model was formulated.Iterated Filter was applied to the epidemic model to estimate the parameters.Results The basic reproduction number (R0) for children in schools was 4.49 (95％ CI:4.30-4.67)and 2.50 (95％CI:2.38-2.61) respectively for the year of 2012 and 2014.Conclusions Space State model seems suitable for mumps prevalence description.The policy of 2-dose MuCV can effectively reduce the number of total patients.Children in schools are the key to reduce the mumps.