Temporal-spatial analysis of bacillary dysentery in the Three Gorges Area of China, 2005-2016 / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective: To analyze the spatial and temporal distributions of bacillary dysentery in Chongqing, Yichang and Enshi (the Three Gorges Area) from 2005 to 2016, and provide evidence for the disease prevention and control. Methods: The incidence data of bacillary dysentery in the Three Gorges Area during this period were collected from National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System. The spatial-temporal scan statistic was conducted with software SaTScan 9.4 and bacillary dysentery clusters were visualized with software ArcGIS 10.3. Results: A total of 126 196 cases were reported in the Three Gorges Area during 2005-2016, with an average incidence rate of 29.67/100 000. The overall incidence was in a downward trend, with an average annual decline rate of 4.74%. Cases occurred all the year round but with an obvious seasonal increase between May and October. Among the reported cases, 44.71% (56 421/126 196) were children under 5-year-old, the cases in children outside child care settings accounted for 41.93% (52 918/126 196) of the total. The incidence rates in districts of Yuzhong, Dadukou, Jiangbei, Shapingba, Jiulongpo, Nanan, Yubei, Chengkou of Chongqing and districts of Xiling and Wujiagang of Yichang city of Hubei province were high, ranging from 60.20/100 000 to 114.81/100 000. Spatial-temporal scan statistic for the spatial and temporal distributions of bacillary dysentery during this period revealed that the temporal distribution was during May-October, and there were 12 class Ⅰ clusters, 35 class Ⅱ clusters, and 9 clusters without statistical significance in counties with high incidence. All the class Ⅰ clusters were in urban area of Chongqing (Yuzhong, Dadukou, Jiangbei, Shapingba, Jiulongpo, Nanan, Beibei, Yubei, Banan) and surrounding counties, and the class Ⅱ clusters transformed from concentrated distribution to scattered distribution. Conclusions: Temporal and spatial cluster of bacillary dysentery incidence existed in the three gorges area during 2005-2016. It is necessary to strengthen the bacillary dysentery prevention and control in urban areas of Chongqing and Yichang.