Prediction of brucellosis epidemic trend based on ARIMA model / 中华疾病控制杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective The aims is to predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis in China, in order to understand the epidemic trend of brucellosis in China, to formulate prevention and control strategies, and to provide data support and decision-making basis. Methods The national population and health science data sharing platform was used to collect the national incidence of brucellosis from January 2004 to December 2016 by month. The data were fitted and predicted using ARIMA model with R software. Results In this study, the parameters of the product season ARIMA (2,1,2) (2,1,1)12 model had statistical significance (all P<0.001). The model fitted well the monthly incidence of brucellosis in China. The average relative error between the predicted value and the actual value was 21.77%. The monthly average incidence of brucellosis in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 were predicted to be 0.399 5/100 000, 0.423 8/100 000, 0.445 6/100 000 and 0.471 2/100 000 respectively, showing a gradually increasing trend ( 2=14.244, P<0.001), with a peak incidence from April to July. Conclusion Under natural conditions, the monthly incidence of human brucellosis in China will increase year by year, and corresponding measures should be taken to control it.