Risk assessment of importation and local transmission of Ebola hemorrhagic fever in Jinhua / 预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective @#To assess the risk of importation and local transmission of Ebola hemorrhagic fever（EHF）in Jinhua,and to provide reference for prevention policy making.@*Methods @#We collected the information of EHF cases,immigration data and EHF response capacity of Jinhua,then invited 18 experts from Jinhua Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau,Exit-Entry Administration Division of Public Security Bureau and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Jinhua. According to the risk assessment criteria recommended by World Health Organization,the risk of EHF importation and local transmission in Jinhua was assessed qualitatively by expert consultation,and the probability of local transmission after EHF importation was assessed quantitatively by compartment model.@*Results @#The results of expert consultation showed that the average scores of possibility and severity of EHF importation in Jinhua was 1.7 and 2.1,which was at low risk after substituted into the risk matrix. The risk of EHF importation in urban areas of Jinhua and Yiwu,where there were more African people,was higher than that in other counties or districts. The average scores of possibility and severity of local transmission was 1.9 and 3.1,which was at medium risk after substituted into the risk matrix. The results of compartment model analysis showed that the possibility of local transmission after the importation of EHF was related to the time interval between the onset of the epidemic and the effective isolation of the imported cases. When the interval was within 2 days,the risk of local transmission was low,but when it exceeded 4 days,the imported epidemic was easy to spread and lead to local transmission.@*Conclusion @#The EHF importation in Jinhua was at low risk;the local transmission caused by imported cases was at medium risk,but was less likely to cause large-scale transmission. Early identification of EHF cases was the key to reducing the risk of local transmission.