Spatiotemporal scan clustering analysis on Scarlet fever in Jinan, 2014-2019 / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of scarlet fever in Jinan, from 2014-2019, and to provide a basis for scarlet fever prevention and control. Methods The case data of scarlet fever in Jinan during 2013-2019 were extracted from the Chinese National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System. Descriptive epidemiology and spatiotemporal rearrangement scanning methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of scarlet fever. The RR values of scarlet fever in different towns (streets) were calculated, and the contour map of RR value was drawn. Results A total of 9 715 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Jinan from 2014 to 2019. During this period, the number of cases and the incidence rate showed a gradual increase, with two seasonal peaks in the winter and spring each year. Spatiotemporal clustering analysis detected a total of eight spatiotemporal aggregation areas, and the strongest one was in Licheng and Lixia Districts, from March 2017 to December 2019 (RR=3.45, LLR=577.88, P<0.001). The relative risk maps in each year from 2014 to 2019 were similar, and the areas with the highest risk were located in the central area of Jinan. Conclusion From 2014 to 2019, scarlet fever is highly prevalent in the central area of Jinan, with obvious spatial and temporal clustering. There are clustering areas in the central, southwest and eastern areas of Jinan, and there was a tendency for the disease to spread to Zhangqiu in the east and Pingyin in the southwest.