The PREMISE score predicts early death in patients with acute ischemic stroke: an external validation of the Chinese cohort / 国际脑血管病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the predictive value of the PREMISE score for early death in Chinese patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).Methods:Patients with AIS admitted to the Department of Neurology, Lu'an people's Hospital from January 2019 to December 2019 were enrolled retrospectively. The demographic data and all baseline clinical data were collected, and compared between the early death group and survival group. Early death was defined as death within 7 days after admission. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent influencing factors for early death in patients with AIS. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of PREMISE score for early death in patients with AIS. Results:A total of 919 patients with AIS were enrolled, 50 of them (5.4%) died early. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that fasting blood sugar (odds ratio [ OR] 1.157, 95% confidence interval [ CI] 1.004-1.334; P=0.044), higher National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score ( OR 1.134, 95% CI 1.051-1.223; P=0.021) and the PREMISE score ( OR 4.047, 95% CI 1.276-12.836; P=0.018) were the independent risk factors for early death in patients with AIS. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the PREMISE score predicting early death in patients with AIS was 0.899 (95% CI 0.866-0.931; P<0.001). When the cutoff value of the PREMISE score was 7, the sensitivity and specificity were 88.0% and 79.2%, respectively, the positive predictive value was 19.6%, and the negative predictive value was 99.1%. Conclusions:The PREMISE score has a good predictive value for early death in Chinese patients with AIS.