A nomogram prediction of medical adhesive-related skin injury in premature infants / 中国实用护理杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To analyze the risk factors of medical adhesive-related skin injury (MARSI) in preterm infants to establish a nomogram model to predict the risk of MARSI.Methods:From July to September 2018, 268 premature infants who were hospitalized in NICU were enrolled in this study. Their clinical data were analyzed and univariate analysis was used to detemine the risk factors related to MARSI, The significant variables were included in the multivariate logistic regression analysis to analyze the independent risk factors for MARSI. Then the R software was used to establish a predictive nomogram model, Bootstrap method was used to validate the nomogram model and the consistency test of the correction curve was used to explore the predictive efficacy of the model in predicting the MARSI.Results:A total of 64 cases out of 268 premature infants had MARSI. The prevalence rate was 23.9 % (64/268). Birth age (28 to 32 weeks) ( P value was 0.021, OR value was 2.736, 95 % CI 1.163-6.435), edema ( P<0.01, OR value was 33.782, 95 % CI 10.510-108.583), maternal diabetes ( P value was 0.039, OR value was 16.011, 95 % CI 1.146-223.692), easy to tear tape ( P value was 0.027, OR value was 13.567, 95 % CI 1.340-137.311) were all independent risk factors for MARSI. The nomogram model showed a conformance-index of 87.29 %, while the consistency test of the correction curve showed that the prediction probability is consistent with the actual occurrence probability. Conclusions:The nomogram built based on the indexes of fetal age, skin state, maternal disease, mucous product has good discrimination and accuracy which could be helpful for screening the patients with high risk, with potentially high clinical application value.