Epidemiological analysis of human plague in Yunnan Province from 1950 to 2018 / 中华地方病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To analyze the distribution and epidemic trend of human plague in Yunnan Province from 1950 to 2018, and to provide basis for prevention and control of the plague.Methods:The epidemic data of plague in Yunnan Province from 1950 to 2018 were from the epidemic surveillance and summary data of Yunnan Institute for Control and Prevention of Endemic Disease over the years, and from "the Records of Yunnan Institute for Control and Prevention of Endemic Disease". The data were collected and collated, and the descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemic situation, time distribution, regional distribution and population distribution of the plague.Results:From 1950 to 2018, human cases occurred successively in the plague foci of 38 counties (cities, districts) in 10 prefectures (cities) in Yunnan Province, with a total of 3 463 confirmed cases and 637 deaths, which could be divided into two epidemic cycles: the end of recent history epidemic period (1950-1955) and the relapse epidemic period (1982-2005). The case fatality rate of human plague in the plague foci of domestic plague in Yunnan Province was 18.00% (615/3 416), and that of wild rodents plague was 46.81% (22/47), the difference was statistically significant (χ 2=25.267, P < 0.01). At the end of recent history epidemic period, the case fatality rate was 21.46% (633/2 950), and 0.78% (4/512) at the relapse epidemic period, the difference was statistically significant (χ 2=124.478, P < 0.01). Of the 513 cases diagnosed after 1986, the epidemic season was mainly from July to November (441 cases), and the population was generally susceptible, mostly in people aged 15-45 years old (217 cases). Conclusions:The epidemic scope of human plague in Yunnan Province is relatively wide, and shows the periodicity of epidemic-rest-re-epidemic-re-rest, which generally shows a downward trend. However, due to the persistence of the epidemic focus, the prevention and control of human plague still needs to be paid attention.