Characteristics and risk factors of acute kidney injury progressed to chronic kidney disease: a prospective, observational cohort study / 中华肾脏病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To prospectively investigate the characteristics of acute kidney injury (AKI) that progressed to chronic kidney disease (CKD) (AKI to CKD) in patients hospitalized for AKI, determine the risk factors of AKI to CKD, and preliminarily evaluate the performance of clinical risk factor model for predicting AKI to CKD.Methods:This was a prospective, observational cohort study. Patients hospitalized for AKI and without a prior CKD [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)<60 ml·min -1·(1.73 m 2) -1] were enrolled in Nanfang Hospital of Southern Medical University from April 2015 to December 2019. Survived patients were followed 90 days after AKI and the renal function 90 days post AKI was determined. The primary endpoint was AKI to CKD, defined as new-onset CKD [eGFR<60 ml·min -1·(1.73 m 2) -1 90 days post AKI]. According to AKI progressed to CKD or not, AKI patients were divided into two groups (with or without AKI to CKD). The baseline clinical data of demographics, comorbidities, baseline renal function, AKI severity, receiving hemodialysis or not, and other lab parameters were compared between two groups. The logistic regression model was used to analyze the risk factors of AKI to CKD. Finally, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to evaluate the performance of clinical risk factor model for predicting AKI to CKD. Results:A total of 168 patients with AKI was enrolled in this study[male, n=91; female, n=77; age (44.0±18.4) years], in which 64 patients (38.1%) developed new-onset CKD 90 days post AKI and 104 patients (61.9%) did not. Compared to those without AKI to CKD, patients with AKI to CKD were older, and had a higher proportion of hypertension, lower levels of eGFR and hemoglobin, higher proportion of receiving hemodialysis, and higher level of discharged serum creatinine (all P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the proportion of diabetes and use of RAS inhibitors, urine protein level, and other lab parameters between two groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis shows that receiving hemodialysis ( OR=2.516, 95% CI 1.251-5.060, P=0.010), hypertension ( OR=2.446, 95% CI 1.124-5.324, P=0.024), and lower baseline eGFR ( OR=0.975, 95% CI 0.950-0.999, P=0.043) were the independent risk factors for AKI to CKD. The clinical risk factor model including age, receiving hemodialysis, hypertension, and baseline eGFR produced moderate performance for predicting AKI to CKD, with the area under ROC curve of 0.712, 95% CI 0.634-0.790. Conclusions:AKI survivors are at high risk for developing CKD. Receiving hemodialysis, hypertension, and lower baseline eGFR are independent risk factors for predicting AKI to CKD. More studies are needed to improve the performance of clinical risk factor model for early detecting high risk patients who will develop AKI to CKD.