Establishment of the nomogram model of conversion in the treatment of cholecystolithiasis and choledocholithiasis with laparoscopy combined with choledochoscopy / 国际外科学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the preoperative risk factors of laparoscopic cholecystectomy(LC)combined with laparoscopic common bile duct exploration(LCBDE) in the treatment of cholecystolithiasis combined with choledocholithiasis, and establish a nomogram model to predict the transition to laparotomy.Methods:A retrospective analysis of the clinical data of 309 patients undergoing surgery in Cangzhou People′s Hospital from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019, were divided into 290 cases in non-laparotomy group and 19 cases in laparotomy group whether they were transferred to laparotomy. Obtained independent predictors of transition to laparotomy through univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and used RStudio to establish a nomogram model to verify it.Results:The results of univariate analysis showed that the history of abdominal surgery, BMI, white blood cell, neutrophil ratio, ALP, serum total bilirubin, gallbladder wall thickness, common bile duct diameter, and lower common bile duct stone incarceration were relative risk factors of LC combined with LCBDE for conversion to laparotomy ( OR=0.195, 0.369, 0.287, 0.241, 0.237, 0.082, 0.166, 0.198, 0.190; 95% CI 0.073-0.517, 0.114-1.195, 0.096-0.859, 0.085-0.682, 0.092-0.613, 0.023-0.287, 0.058-0.475, 0.073-0.537, 0.056-0.649). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that white blood cells>10×10 9/L, alkaline phosphatase>150 U/L, serum total bilirubin>17.1 umol/L, gallbladder Wall thickness> 4 mm, common bile duct diameter>12 mm, and lower common bile duct stone incarceration were independent predictors of LC combined with LCBDE for conversion to laparotomy ( OR=6.498, 3.656, 22.160, 5.762, 4.849, 7.916; 95% CI 1.434-29.442, 1.095-12.203, 4.485-109.496, 1.491-22.262, 1.384-16.988, 1.366-45.884). The nomogram model was established based on independent predictors, and then bootstrap repeated sampling was used to internally verify the predictive model. The calibration curve found that the model was in good agreement, with a C-index of 0.924(95% CI 0.857-0.990) and the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.924(95% CI 0.855-0.992), indicating the high accuracy of the model. Conclusion:The nomogram model established based on the factors of lower common bile duct stone incarceration, gallbladder wall thickness, common bile duct diameter, common bile duct diameter, white blood cells, alkaline phosphatase, and serum total bilirubin has good ability to predict conversion to laparotomy of LC combined with LCBDE, and has high clinical application value.