Discriminant analysis of the risk of nosocomial mortality in patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock / 中华普通外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the use of discriminant analysis to predict the risk of nosocomial mortality in patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock.Methods:The clinical data of 238 patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock admitted to Peking University People's Hospital from Sep 2013 to Aug 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into survival group (214 cases) and death group (24 cases). Stepwise discriminant analysis was used to establish a discriminant model.Results:The difference of history of stroke (9.8% vs. 25.0%), main site of bleeding (extremities)(58.9% vs. 29.2%), APACHEⅡ score (16.4±5.1 vs. 23.2±6.1), blood lactic acid [2.1(1.1-3.5) mmol/L vs. 4.9(2.0-13.4) mmol/L] and surgery (92.5% vs. 58.3%) between the two groups was all statistically significant (all P<0.05). Finally, There are five indicators that entered the discriminant model: history of stroke, main site of bleeding (extremities), blood lactic acid, APACHE Ⅱ score and surgery. The area under the ROC curve for predicting the risk of mortality in patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock was 0.857, 95% CI 0.754-0.959. Conclusions:The established discriminant model has a high accuracy in predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with traumatic hemorrhagic shock.