Development and Validation of a Prediction Model for the Number of Patients Visiting Emergency Departments
Journal of the Korean Society of Emergency Medicine
; : 678-686, 2010.
Article
Dans Ko
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-93392
Responsable en Bibliothèque :
WPRO
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for the number of patients visiting emergency departments. METHODS: Enrolled patients were from eleven regional emergency departments (EDs) (level-1) that inputted information on emergency patients into the National Emergency Department Information System since 2004. We developed the automated regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)-based prediction model using a dataset covering 2005 to 2007. To validate the prediction model, we performed Bland-Altman plot analysis for a new dataset, that of 2008, calculating the agreement rate. RESULTS: The total number of enrolled patients was 1,532,294. Of these, 844,802 (55.1%) were male and mean age was 36.5. The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1) 7 was selected as the best-fit prediction model. When we tested the validity using Bland-Altman plots, the agreement rate was 96.4% (95% CI, 94.0%~98.1%). Non-agreement dates were national holidays (n=9), and the other weekdays (n=4), respectively. CONCLUSION: We developed the ARIMA-based prediction model for emergency patients at regional EDs. The model showed a very high validity.
Texte intégral:
1
Indice:
WPRIM
Sujet Principal:
Systèmes d'information
/
Reproductibilité des résultats
/
Modèles statistiques
/
Chronologie comme sujet
/
Moclobémide
/
Urgences
/
Services des urgences médicales
/
Vacances
Type d'étude:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limites du sujet:
Humans
/
Male
langue:
Ko
Texte intégral:
Journal of the Korean Society of Emergency Medicine
Année:
2010
Type:
Article