Estimation of the Relative Risk for Breast Cancer in Korean Women Using Gail Model / 대한폐경학회지

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to estimate the relative risk for breast cancer using the Gail model and to observe the relationship between mammographic density and the 5-year risk of breast cancer. METHODS: A total of 600 women who visited the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology in Chung-Ang University Yongsan Hospital were screened using the Gail model to estimate their relative risk for breast cancer. The correlation between the 5-year risk of breast cancer and the mammographic density of 462 women who had performed mammography within 1 year of the study was analyzed. RESULTS: The mean age of the study subjects was 56.7 +/- 8.2 years. The estimated mean values for the 5-year risk and lifetime risk for breast cancer were 1.23 +/- 0.46% and 7.90 +/- 2.76% respectively in all study subjects. The estimated mean value of the 5-year risk for breast cancer increased with age. Otherwise, the estimated lifetime risk for breast cancer decreased with age. Ninety-two women (15.3%) were classified as high-risk because their estimated 5-year risk was over 1.67% or their lifetime risk was over 20%. High risk percentages according to age were 10.5% in the thirties, 0.84% in the forties, 7.2% in the fifties, 32.7% in the sixties, and 35.7% in the seventies. Among the high risk postmenopausal women, 52.2% were taking hormone therapy. Mammographic density was not significantly correlated with the estimated 5-year risk for breast cancer. CONCLUSION: About fifteen percent of study subjects were at high risk for breast cancer according to the estimated 5-year risk or lifetime risk for breast cancer using Gail model. Mammographic density was not correlated with the 5-year risk for breast cancer.