Identification of heat risk days in Ulaanbaatar city population’s health / Монголын Анагаах Ухаан

ABSTRACT

IntroductionAround for the last 70 years, an annual average temperature in Mongolian territory has been increasedby 2.14°Ñ which is 3 times more rapid than the global average warming rate. Also, the number of heatwave days have been increased [1, 2].Heat wave day’s leads to heat related morbidity and mortality. Espesially, stroke [3-5], cardiovascular [3-13] and respiratory [3, 5, 10, 12] mortalities are prevelant. Cardiovascular mortality has been determinedas a leading cause of mortality in our population while it takes the 3rd place [14] as a cardiovascularmorbidity.As the city of Ulaanbaatar houses 46% of Mongolian population, heat effects on health in the area andits trend need to be assessed, analyzed and identifi ed.PurposeTo identify heat risk days to health of the population of Ulaanbaatar city between the years of 1985through 2015Materials and MethodUnder the requirements set to sample, heat risk days with temperatures above 21.10C or 700F refl ectedon weather forecasts broadcasted from 1985 through 2015 by the Information And Research InstituteOf Meteorology, Hydrology And Environment, Mongolia have been selected. The afore mentioneddata have been translated into the heat index of National Weather Service of USA and processed andconcluded [15] according to the special formula and tables.ResultsIt is shown that heat risk days for the health of population of the Ulaanbaatar city had been 201 from1985 through 1995, 385 from 1996 through 2005 and 373 from 2006 through 2015. The average heatrisk days per given year varied in numbers from 4 through 56 and trended to increase. The largest heatwave days in number happened in the year of 2010 which is 56.According to health impacts of heat risk days, we had 0-47 Cautions, 0-17 Extreme Cautions and 2Dangers in the each of 1999 and 2005 and 1 in 2007 whilst no Extreme Danger has not been recordedyet.Conclusions:1. The number of heat risk days in the area of Ulaanbaatar tends to increase2. The number of Caution and Extreme caution days of Ulaanbaatar is observed to increase. Increaseof “Danger” tagged days, happening of “Extreme” tagged days and heat intense will depend onclimate change.