Prognostic accuracy of five common scoring systems for mortality in elderly patients with sepsis / 中国医师杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To assess the prognostic accuracy of five scoring systems for mortality in elderly patients (≥80 years old) with sepsis.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted on elderly patients with sepsis (≥80 years old, meeting Sepsis 3.0 diagnostic criteria) in Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care Ⅳ (MIMIC-Ⅳ). The participants were divided into survival and death group according to the 28-day mortality. The baseline data of patients was collected based on the peak of vital signs and laboratory test results within 24 hours after admission to intensive care unit (ICU). Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) score, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) were calculated and prognosis was recorded. The accuracy of the above scoring systems in predicting 28-day mortality was calculated, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated and compared.Results:A total of 42 037 hospital records were screened, and 956 sepsis patients (456 males, 47.70%) who were aged ≥80 years and met the Sepsis 3.0 diagnostic criteria within 24 hours of admission to ICU were included. There were 696 patients (72.8%) in the survival group and 260 patients (27.2%) in the death group. There were no significant difference in age, gender, Charlson Comorbidity Index, length of stay before admission to ICU and length of stay in ICU between 2 groups (all P>0.05). The proportion of patients receiving mechanical ventilation and septic shock in the death group were higher comparing with those in the survival group (both P<0.001), and the total length of hospital stay in the survival group was longer than that in the death group ( P<0.001). The proportion of SOFA score≥7, qSOFA score≥2, SIRS score≥2, NEWS score≥8, OASIS score≥42 in the death group was higher than that in the survival group (all P<0.05). The AUC of qSOFA, SOFA, SIRS, NEWS and OASIS in predicting the mortality of elderly sepsis patients were 0.587 (95% CI: 0.556-0.617), 0.694 (95% CI: 0.655-0.732), 0.591 (95% CI: 0.555-0.627), 0.684 (95% CI: 0.646-0.721) and 0.718 (95% CI: 0.681-0.755), respectively. Conclusions:OASIS was superior than qSOFA, SOFA, SIRS and NEWS scores in predicting the mortality of elderly patients with sepsis, but the prognostic accuracy of all above scoring systems for elderly patients with sepsis was insufficient.