Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holts model
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
;
53: e20200283, 2020. tab, graf
Artigo
em Inglês
| SES-SP, ColecionaSUS, LILACS
| ID: biblio-1136844
ABSTRACT
Abstract INTRODUCTION:
We evaluated the performance of the Holt's model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states.METHODS:
We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period.RESULTS:
The Holt's model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state.Conclusions:
The Holt's model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.
Texto completo:
DisponíveL
Índice:
LILACS (Américas)
Assunto principal:
Pneumonia Viral
/
Modelos Estatísticos
/
Infecções por Coronavirus
/
Pandemias
/
Previsões
/
Betacoronavirus
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo prognóstico
/
Fatores de risco
Limite:
Humanos
País/Região como assunto:
América do Sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
Inglês
Revista:
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
Instituição/País de afiliação:
Universidade de São Paulo/BR
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