Tracking excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 epidemic as an epidemiological surveillance strategy-preliminary results of the evaluation of six Brazilian capitals
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
;
53: e20200558, 2020. tab, graf
Artigo
em Inglês
| SES-SP, ColecionaSUS, LILACS
| ID: biblio-1136853
ABSTRACT
Abstract INTRODUCTION:
In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak a pandemic. In Brazil, 110 thousand cases and 5,901 deaths were confirmed by the end of April 2020. The scarcity of laboratory resources, the overload on the service network, and the broad clinical spectrum of the disease make it difficult to document all the deaths due to COVID-19. The aim of this study was to assess the mortality rate in Brazilian capitals with a high incidence of COVID-19.METHODS:
We assessed the weekly mortality between epidemiological week 1 and 16 in 2020 and the corresponding period in 2019. We estimated the expected mortality at 95% confidence interval by projecting the mortality in 2019 to the population in 2020, using data from the National Association of Civil Registrars (ARPEN-Brasil).RESULTS:
In the five capitals with the highest incidence of COVID-19, we identified excess deaths during the pandemic. The age group above 60 years was severely affected, while 31% of the excess deaths occurred in the age group of 20-59 years. There was a strong correlation (r = 0.94) between excess deaths and the number of deaths confirmed by epidemiological monitoring. The epidemiological surveillance captured only 52% of all mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the cities examined.CONCLUSIONS:
Considering the simplicity of the method and its low cost, we believe that the assessment of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic should be used as a complementary tool for regular epidemiological surveillance.
Texto completo:
DisponíveL
Índice:
LILACS (Américas)
Assunto principal:
Pneumonia Viral
/
Mortalidade
/
Infecções por Coronavirus
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo prognóstico
/
Fatores de risco
/
Estudo de rastreamento
Limite:
Adulto
/
Humanos
País/Região como assunto:
América do Sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
Inglês
Revista:
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
Instituição/País de afiliação:
Centro Universitário Christus/BR
/
Faculdade de Medicina São Leopoldo Mandic de Campinas/BR
/
Faculdade de Medicina de Marília/BR
/
Ministério da Saúde/BR
/
Universidade Federal de Uberlândia/BR
/
Universidade Federal do Ceará/BR
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