COVID-19 epidemic curve in Brazil: a sum of multiple epidemics, whose inequality and population density in the states are correlated with growth rate and daily acceleration. An ecological study
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
;
55: e0118, 2022. tab, graf
Artigo
em Inglês
|
LILACS-Express
| LILACS
| ID: biblio-1360835
ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT Background:
The epidemic curve has been obtained based on the 7-day moving average of the events. Although it facilitates the visualization of discrete variables, it does not allow the calculation of the absolute variation rate. Recently, we demonstrated that the polynomial interpolation method can be used to accurately calculate the daily acceleration of cases and deaths due to COVID-19. This study aimed to measure the diversity of epidemic curves and understand the importance of socioeconomic variables in the acceleration, peak cases, and deaths due to COVID-19 in Brazilian states.Methods:
Epidemiological data for COVID-19 from federative units in Brazil were obtained from the Ministry of Health's website from February 25 to July 11, 2020. Socioeconomic data were obtained from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (https//www.ibge.gov.br/). Using the polynomial interpolation methods, daily cases, deaths and acceleration were calculated. Moreover, the correlation coefficient between the epidemic curve data and socioeconomic data was determined.Results:
The combination of daily data and case acceleration determined that Brazilian states were in different stages of the epidemic. Maximum case acceleration, peak of cases, maximum death acceleration, and peak of deaths were associated with the Gini index of the gross domestic product of Brazilian states and population density but did not correlate with the per capita gross domestic product of Brazilian states.Conclusions:
Brazilian states showed heterogeneous data curves. Population density and socioeconomic inequality were correlated with a more rapid exponential growth in new cases and deaths.
Texto completo:
DisponíveL
Índice:
LILACS (Américas)
País/Região como assunto:
América do Sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
Inglês
Revista:
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
Assunto da revista:
Medicina Tropical
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
País de afiliação:
Brasil
Instituição/País de afiliação:
Grupo Baiano de Oncologia/BR
/
Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana/BR
/
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais/BR
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