Hemorragia digestiva baja: factores de riesgo de gravedad, necesidad de cirugía de urgencia y mortalidad hospitalaria / Lower gastrointestinal bleeding: risk factors of severity, need for emergency surgery and in-hospital Mortality

RESUMEN

RESUMEN Antecedentes Últimamente creció el interés en poder determinar, en etapas tempranas de las hemorragias digestivas bajas (HDB), aquellos factores de riesgo relacionados con la posibilidad de presentar resultados evolutivos adversos. Objectivo: Determinar los factores de riesgo asociados a sangrados graves, cirugía de urgencia y mortalidad hospitalaria. Material y métodos: Realizamos un estudio observacional y retrospectivo sobre 1.850 pacientes, atendidos en forma consecutiva entre enero de 1999 y diciembre de 2018 por HDB. Para evaluar el riesgo de gravedad analizamos trece variables en las primeras cuatro horas desde la admisión. Para determinar los factores relacionados con la cirugía de urgencia, agregamos la enfermedad diverticular y, para evaluar mortalidad, la cirugía de urgencia y el puntaje (score) preoperatorio de la Sociedad Americana de Anestesiología (ASA). Resultados: De los 1.850 casos, 194 fueron graves y 1656 leves/moderados. Resultaron estadísticamente significativos como factores de mayor gravedad > 70 años, FC > 120 lat/min., TA < 90 mm Hg, oliguria, hematoquecia masiva, hematocrito < 30%, hemoglobina < 7 g/% y necesidad transfusional. Resultaron predictores significativos de cirugía de urgencia > 70 años, anti-coagulación, hipotensión arterial, taquicardia, hemoglobina < 7 g/%, oliguria, transfusiones y hematoquecia masiva. Se construyó una fórmula pronóstica de requerimiento de cirugía (sensibilidad 94%, especificidad 74%, valor predictivo positivo 91% y valor predictivo negativo 81%). AUC 0,89%. Fueron significativos para mortalidad > 70 años, anticoagulados, hematoquecia masiva, transfusiones y cirugía urgente. De los dieciséis pacientes operados y fallecidos de la serie, quince presentaban un ASA ≥ IV. Conclusiones: Las variables utilizadas resultaron simples, fiables y estadísticamente significativas para predecir gravedad, cirugía de urgencia y mortalidad.

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT Background: Background: There has been a growing interest in determining those risk factors associated with adverse outcomes in early stages of lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB). Objective: The aim of our study was to analyze the risk factors associated with severe bleeding, emergency surgery and in-hospital mortality. Material and methods: We conducted an observational and retrospective study on 1850 patients consecutive managed between January 1999 and December 2018 for LGIB. We analyzed thirteen variables within the first four hours of hospitalization to evaluate risk severity. Diverticular disease was considered to determine factors associated with emergency surgery, and the preoperative American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score was used to assess mortality and emergency surgery. Results: Out of 1850 cases, 194 were severe and 1656 were mild/moderate, Patients > 70 years, with HR > 120 beats/min, BP < 90 mm Hg, oliguria, massive hematochezia, hematocrit < 30%, hemoglobin < 7 g% and need for transfusions presented statistically significant associations with severe bleeding. Age > 70 years, anticoagulation, hypotension, tachycardia, hemoglobin < 7 g%, oliguria, need for transfusion and massive hematochezia were significant predictors of emergency surgery. A prognostic formula was constructed to predict the need for surgery (sensitivity 94%, specificity 74%, positive predictive value 91% and negative predictive value 81%). AUC-ROC 0,89%. Age > 70 years, anticoagulation, massive hematochezia transfusions and emergency surgery were identified as predictors of mortality. Fifteen of the sixteen patients who underwent surgery and died had ASA ≥ grade 4. Conclusions: The variables analyzed are simple, reliable and statistically significant to estimate the risk of severe bleeding, need for emergency surgery and mortality.