Simulation of temperature changes in Iran under the atmosphere carbon dioxide duplication condition

ABSTRACT

The present research intends to show the effect of global warming on the trend and patterns of temperature in Iran. The study has been divided into two primary parts, the first of which is an analysis of the country's temperature trend using the following data measures: the minimum, maximum, and mean seasonal night temperature [the minimum temperature] components, the day temperature [the maximum temperature] component and the mean daily temperature component. This data is specific to the time frame 1951 to 2005 and it was obtained from 92 synoptic and climatology stations around the country. The second part of this research involved simulating and forecasting the effects of global warming on temperature values under conditions in which greenhouse gases have increased. For analyzing these simulations and forecasts the MAGICC SCENGEN model was used and different climate change scenarios were taken into consideration. The results are quite interesting. In the analysis of the country's current temperature trend and in the forecasting's, specifically related to time, a significant temperature increase was observed during the summer months. Also, with regard to altitudinal levels, it was evident that stations at higher altitudes show a more significant increase in daily and mean daily temperatures. Taking into account the output mean of the different climate change scenarios, the temperature simulations show a 4.41 Degree C increase in Iran's mean temperature by 2100. Most of these temperature increases would occur in the southern and eastern parts of Bushehr, certain coastal regions of the Persian Gulf, eastern and western parts of Fars, Kohgilooye, Boyerahmad, southern parts of Yazd, as well as southern and southeastern parts of Esfahan