Infant, neonatal and postneonatal mortalities in Egypt and Alexandria Governorate: trends and prediction

ABSTRACT

This study aimed at determining the trend of infant mortality, neonatal mortality, postneonatal mortality and the ratio of postnenonatal mortality to neonatal mortality% during the last 27 years for Egypt as a whole and Alexandria Governorate with investigation of the trend change after eliminating the effect of National Control of Diarrheal Diseases Project and Predicting the expected situation of infant mortality profile for future years. The rates of Egypt were obtained form CAPMAS while rates of Alexandria Governorate were calculated using the original data. Time Series Analysis using the method of least squares for determining the slope of the best fitting straight line was carried out to calculate the trend and predicted the expected rate values. An evident on-going declining trend in infant mortality rate, postneonatal mortality rate and ratio of postneonatal mortality to neonatal mortality% was experienced in Egypt and Alexandria and it was faster in Alexandria. On eliminating the effect of the rehydration program a delayed lowest expected rates wee detected. The neonatal mortality ate decline showed the same slope even after elimination of the program effect. Prediction of future rates showed better chance of child survival of Egyptian infants and it would be observed faster in Alexandria