Road traffic accidents; prediction in Pakistan

ABSTRACT

To determine the trend of road traffic accidents [RTAs] and forecasting their incidence is an emerging to take safety measures so that general public health related morbidity and mortality can be minimized. The data for present study has been taken from Pakistan bureau of statistics [statistics House]. January 2002-2003 to December 2011-2012. A set of eleven curve fitting models namely linear, quadratic, cubic, logarithmic, inverse, exponential growth model, logistics-curve ,and compound models were carried out for prediction. Under the descriptive analysis, the annual average number of fatal and non-fatal accidents is 43.3% and 56.7% respectively. In provinces Punjab contributes to a high rate of total number of accidents, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Baluchistan placed second, third and fourth respectively. Under the curve fitting estimation, the cubic model was selected for predicting the annual traffic road accident for all categories i.e. [i] Total Number of Accident [ii] Fatal Accident [iii] Non-Fatal Accident [iv] Killed People [v] Injured People and [vi] The Number of Vehicle Involved. Rising trend in all categories are expected in Pakistan. The traffic road accident is expected to rise in Pakistan