Predictors of local malaria outbreaks: an approach to the development of an early warning system in Colombia
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
;
106(supl.1): 107-113, Aug. 2011. graf, tab
Artigo
em Inglês
| LILACS
| ID: lil-597251
ABSTRACT
Risk factor surveillance is a complementary tool of morbidity and mortality surveillance that improves the likelihood that public health interventions are implemented in a timely fashion. The aim of this study was to identify population predictors of malaria outbreaks in endemic municipalities of Colombia with the goal of developing an early warning system for malaria outbreaks. We conducted a multiple-group, exploratory, ecological study at the municipal level. Each of the 290 municipalities with endemic malaria that we studied was classified according to the presence or absence of outbreaks. The measurement of variables was based on historic registries and logistic regression was performed to analyse the data. Altitude above sea level [odds ratio (OR) 3.65, 95 percent confidence interval (CI) 1.34-9.98], variability in rainfall (OR 1.85, 95 percent CI 1.40-2.44) and the proportion of inhabitants over 45 years of age (OR 0.17, 95 percent CI 0.08-0.38) were factors associated with malaria outbreaks in Colombian municipalities. The results suggest that environmental and demographic factors could have a significant ability to predict malaria outbreaks on the municipal level in Colombia. To advance the development of an early warning system, it will be necessary to adjust and standardise the collection of required data and to evaluate the accuracy of the forecast models.
Texto completo:
DisponíveL
Índice:
LILACS (Américas)
Assunto principal:
Vigilância da População
/
Surtos de Doenças
/
Malária
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo de etiologia
/
Estudo prognóstico
/
Fatores de risco
/
Estudo de rastreamento
Limite:
Humanos
País/Região como assunto:
América do Sul
/
Colômbia
Idioma:
Inglês
Revista:
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
Assunto da revista:
Medicina Tropical
/
Parasitologia
Ano de publicação:
2011
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
País de afiliação:
Colômbia
Instituição/País de afiliação:
Fundación FES Social/CO
/
Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá/CO
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