Time to untreatable progression is an appropriate surrogate endpoint for overall survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after transarterial chemoembolization

ABSTRACT

Aims: The aim of the study was to determine whether the time to progression (TTP) or time to untreatable progression (TTUP) is an appropriate surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Materials and Methods: Eighty-four patients with Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) stage B or C HCC underwent TACE. The correlations of TTP and TTUP with OS were evaluated after a log transformation of the indicated values. After identifying independent prognostic factors of TTP, TTUP, and OS, the partial correlations of TTP and TTUP with OS were analyzed in all patients and subgroups. Subsequently, the prognostic value of TTP and TTUP was compared by the multivariate survival analysis of OS. Results: Both the BCLC stage and tumor number were correlated with TTP and TTUP. In addition, the BCLC stage, initial treatment failure, and sorafenib administration were associated with OS. In all patients, the correlation coefficients of TTP and TTUP with OS were 0.559 and 0.789, respectively. Adjustment for independent prognostic factors yielded partial correlation coefficients which were 0.433 and 0.697, respectively. Furthermore, OS was found to be associated with TTUP (P = 0.003; hazard ratio 0.253; 95% confidence interval 0.10–0.63) but not with TTP. Conclusion: Untreatable progression is more representative of clinical progression in patients with HCC who underwent TACE. In the current study, TTUP is a more appropriate surrogate endpoint for OS than TTP. Future studies should explore whether untreatable progression is a valuable endpoint event in clinical trials or an indicator of the need for second-line therapy