Cumulative risk and trends in prostate cancer incidence in Mumbai, India.

BACKGROUND: Information relating to cancer incidence trends in a community forms the scientific basis for the planning and organization of prevention, diagnosis and treatment of cancer. We here estimated the cumulative risk and trends in incidence of prostate cancer in Mumbai, India, using data collected by the Bombay Population-based Cancer Registry from the year 1986 to 2000. METHODS: During the 15 year period, a total of 2864 prostate cancer cases (4.7% of all male cancers and 2.4% of all cancers) were registered by the Bombay Population-based Cancer Registry. For evaluation of the trend, we applied a linear regression model based on the logarithm of the observed incidence rates. The annual percentage changes were also computed for the evaluation. Cumulative incidence rates percentages were calculated by adding up the age specific incidence rates at single ages and then expressed as a percentage. RESULTS: Analysis of the trends in age-adjusted incidence rates of prostate cancer during the period 1986 to 2000 showed no statistically significant increase or decrease and the rates proved stable across the various age groups (00-49, 50-69 and 70+) also. The probability estimates indicated that one out of every 59 men will contract a prostate cancer at some time in his whole life and 99% of the chance is after he reaches the age of 50. CONCLUSION: The stability in age adjusted-incidence rates indicates that there are no changes in the etiological factors for prostate cancer in Mumbai, India. These findings may be of general interest because changes in diagnostic practices are confounded in the time trends of prostate cancer change in many western countries preventing inferences on the changes in risk.