Trends and predictions of cancer incidence cases by site and sex for Mumbai.

ABSTRACT

In order to estimate the resources needed for the diagnosis, treatment, follow-up and rehabilitation services needed for cancer patients, it is important to know the magnitude of common cancers at present and in future. Keeping this view in mind an attempt has been made to predict cancer incidence cases for most common cancers for Greater Bombay upto the year 2002. The trend analysis is carried out for major 30 cancer sites for both the sexes using age incidence data of Greater Bombay for the period 1968 to 1987. The age-period-cohort model which was fitted to the data for studying trends for each site and sex has also been utilized for prediction also. Prediction was based on the assumption that the characteristic features of the model estimated from the observed rates would continue to hold during the prediction periods. Present trend analysis showed that cancers of the tongue, mouth, oropharynx, oesophagus, stomach and larynx in both sexes and cervix for females have registered a decline in incidence over a period of observation. While, during the same period, cancers of the liver, pancreas, bladder, brain and thyroid in both the sexes, breast, endometrium and ovary in females, and testis in males showed increasing trends in incidence, while cancers of the hypopharynx, lung, bone, connective tissue and lymphomas in both the sexes did not show any significant change in the incidence. In males in 1968-1972 cancer of the oesophagus was the leading cancer, followed by lung, larynx, tongue and stomach, while in 1988-2002 cancer of the lung will be the most predominant cancer, followed by hypopharynx, oesophagus, prostate and tongue. It is believed that the results of the present study will provide a sound basis for planning the cancer control, prevention, diagnostics, treatment and rehabilitation in Mumbai for the years to come.