Burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2030 / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To measure the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict its changes from 2020 to 2030. Methods The age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) data resources, and the trends in burdens of hepatitis B-associated diseases were evaluated from 1990 to 2019 using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and annual percent change (APC). In addition, the changes in the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases were predicted in China from 2020 to 2023 using the Bayesian model. Results The overall incidence of hepatitis B-associated diseases reduced from 2 725.98/105 in 1990 to 1 397.31/105 in 2019 in China [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = −2.35%, 95% confidential interval (CI) (−2.58%, −2.13%)], with a reduction in the prevalence from 12 239.53/105 in 1990 to 6 566.12/105 in 2019 [EAPC = −2.34%, 95% CI (−2.54%, −2.14%)], a reduction in the mortality from 24.67/105 in 1990 to 8.07/105 in 2019 [EAPC = −4.92%, 95% CI (−5.37%, −4.47%)], and a reduction in the DALY rate from 793.38/105 in 1990 to 247.71/105 in 2019 [(EAPC = −5.15%, 95% CI (−5.64%, −4.66%)]. The DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases were mainly attributed to liver cancer, and the DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases appeared a tendency towards a rise in China from 2012 to 2019 [APC = 1.30%, 95% CI (0.16%, 2.45%)]. The overall burden of hepatitis Bassociated diseases was higher in males than in females, and the DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases increased with age, with the greatest DALY rate seen among patients at ages of 50 to 69 years. The overall incidence of hepatitis B-associated diseases was projected to be 866.79/105 in China in 2030, with the greatest incidence seen in acute hepatitis B (854.87/105), and the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases was predicted to decline in China from 2020 to 2030; however, the burden of liver disease was projected to appear a tendency towards a rise. Conclusions The burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases appears an overall tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2030; however, the burden of liver cancer appears a tendency towards aggravation. Early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer should be given a high priority.