Trend analysis of chronic kidney disease incidence and mortality in Chinese population based on age-period-cohort model / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the changing trend and epidemiological characteristics of the incidence and mortality of chronic kidney disease (CKD) with age, period and birth cohort in Chinese population. Methods Based on the data of incidence and mortality of CKD in Chinese population aged 20-80 years from 1990 to 2019 in GHDx database, joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence and mortality trend of CKD. An age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on the trend of CKD incidence and mortality. Results Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the standardized incidence rate of chronic kidney disease in Chinese population increased from 146.37/100 000 in 1990 to 161.52/100 000 in 2019, while the standardized mortality rate decreased from 12.98/100 000 in 1990 to 11.23/100 000 in 2019. The APC model analysis showed that the risk of CKD incidence and death in the Chinese population increased with age, while the risk of CKD incidence increased with the increase of period. The risk of death did not change significantly with the increase of period. The cohort born later had a lower risk of CKD incidence and death compared to the cohort born earlier. Conclusion At present, the age effect and period effect of the incidence and death risk of chronic kidney disease in China are dominant. It is important to take effective measures and intervene in a timely manner, especially to strengthen the protection of older high-risk groups born earlier.