Validation of a Modified Early Warning Score to Predict ICU Transfer for Patients with Severe Sepsis or Septic Shock on General Wards

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To assess whether the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) predicts the need for intensive care unit (ICU) transfer for patients with severe sepsis or septic shock admitted to general wards. METHODS: A retrospective chart review of 100 general ward patients with severe sepsis or septic shock was implemented. Clinical information and MEWS according to point of time between ICU group and general ward group were reviewed. Data were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves with SPSS/WIN 18.0 program. RESULTS: Thirty-eight ICU patients and sixty-two general ward patients were included. In multivariate logistic regression, MEWS (odds ratio [OR] 2.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.43-2.85), lactic acid (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.22-2.73) and diastolic blood pressure (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.80-1.00) were predictive of ICU transfer. The sensitivity and the specificity of MEWS used with cut-off value of six were 89.5% and 67.7% for ICU transfer. CONCLUSION: MEWS is an effective predictor of ICU transfer. A clinical algorithm could be created to respond to high MEWS and intervene with appropriate changes in clinical management.