Prediction of Intravenous Immunoglobulin Nonresponse Kawasaki Disease in Korea / 소아감염

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to find the predictors and generate a prediction scoring model of nonresponse to intravenous immunoglobulin in patients with Kawasaki disease. METHODS: We examined 573 children diagnosed with KD at the Severance Children's Hospital between January 2009 and december 2012. We retrospectively reviewed their medical records. These patients were divided into 2 groups; the experimental group (N=433) and the validation group (N=140). Each group were divided into 2 groups the intravenous immunoglobulin nonresponders and the responders. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified predictive factors of intravenous immunoglobulin nonresponders which make predictive scoring model. We practice internal validation and external validation. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified male, cervical lymphadenopathy, changes of the extremities, platelet, total bilirubin, alkaline phophatase, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein as significant predictors for nonresponse to intravenous immunoglobulin. We generated prediction score assigning 1 point for (1) male, (2) cervical lymphadenopathy, (3) changes of the extremities, (4) platelet ( or =0.4 mg/dL), (6) alkaline phophatase (> or =227 IU/L), (7) lactate dehydrogenase (> or =268 IU/L), (8) C-reactive protein (>77.1 mg/dL). Using a cut-off point of 4 and more with this prediction score, we could identify the intravenous immunoglobulin nonresponder group. Sensitivity and specificity were 52.5% and 82.4% in experimental group and 37.8% and 81.8% in validation group, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our predictive scoring models had high specificity and low sensitivity in Korean patients. Therefore it is useful in predicting nonresponse to intravenous immunoglobulin with Kawasaki disease.