Impact on the potential epidemic of dengue fever under warming winter in Hainan province / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>Impact of climate warming in winter on the potential epidemics of dengue fever in Hainan was assessed.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Based on historic data of mean monthly temperature in January from 8 weather observation stations, tendency and amplitude of variation were analyzed. Using 21 degrees C as lowest limit of temperature suitable for dengue fever transmission, impact caused by climate warming on dengue fever epidemic was estimated by means of geography information system (GIS), insect vector and epidemiological features.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Temperature in winter in Hainan province had shown an obvious increase. The maximum amplitude of increase appeared in Dongfang which was 1.4 degrees C and the minimum 0.5 degrees C in Shanhudao, but the increase amplitude in the other stations was varied from 0.7 to 1.3 degrees C. By the year of 2050, 21 degrees C contour will have moved 190 km or so northward, nearly spanned 6/7 of distance from south to north in Hainan province and under the condition of daily fraction surviving of Aedes aegypti as P = 0.89, Qionghai city which stands north in Hainan province will probably have become epidemic area of dengue fever all year round.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Climate warming in winter will probably make half or more of the areas in Hainan province with temperature that permitting transmission of dengue fever by 2050. Monitoring and prevention of dengue fever in winter should be emphasized.</p>