Study on early warning method for influenza epidemic in Gansu province / 中华流行病学杂志
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
;
(12): 430-433, 2016.
Artigo
em Chinês
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-237527
ABSTRACT
<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore the appropriate early warning method for influenza epidemic in Gansu province.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>By using simple control chart, moving percentile method, exponential smoothing method and cumulative sum control chart method, the annual incidence data of influenza-like illness in Gansu province during 2014-2015 were analyzed, and the sensitivities, specificities, positive predictive values, Jorden indexes and Kappa values of the 4 methods were evaluated and compared.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The 2014-2015 seasonal influenza epidemic occurred in the fiftieth week of 2014 in Gansu, and the epidemic peak lasted for 6 weeks. Cumulative sum control chart method had the best early warning effect with the sensitivity of 66.67% and specificity of 93.48%.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>It is feasible to use cumulative sum control chart method to give early warning of influenza epidemic in Gansu.</p>
Texto completo:
DisponíveL
Índice:
WPRIM (Pacífico Ocidental)
Assunto principal:
Estações do Ano
/
China
/
Estudos de Viabilidade
/
Epidemiologia
/
Notificação de Doenças
/
Influenza Humana
/
Epidemias
/
Métodos
Limite:
Humanos
País/Região como assunto:
Ásia
Idioma:
Chinês
Revista:
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
Ano de publicação:
2016
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
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