A model for evaluation of key measures for control of chikungunya fever outbreak in China / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the transmission pattern of Chikungunya (CHIK) fever in community and evaluate the effectiveness of mosquito control, case isolation and other key control measures by using ordinary differential equation (ODE) model.Methods According to natural history of CHIK, an ODE model for the epidemiological anaysis of CHIK outbreak was established.The key parameters of the model were obtained by fitting the model with reported outbreak data of the first CHIK outbreak in China.Then the outbreak characteristics without intervention, the effectiveness of mosquito control and case isolation were simulated.Results Without intervention, an imported case would cause an outbreak in a community with population of 11 000, and cumulative case number would exceed 941 when the total attack rate was 8.55％.The results of our simulation revealed that the effectiveness of case isolation was not perfect enough when it was implemented alone.Although the number of cases could be decreased by case isolation, the duration of outbreak would not be shortened.Differently, the effectiveness of mosquito control was remarkable.In addition, the earlier the measure was implemented, the better the effectiveness would be.The effectiveness of mosquito control plus case isolation was same with mosquito control.Conclusion To control a CHIK outbreak, mosquito control is the most recommended measures.However, case isolation is also necessary as the supplementation of mosquito control.