Time trends on the prevalence of cancer during 1970 - 2005 in Shandong province / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze time trend of cancer during 1970-2005 in Shandong province so as to develop strategies for control and prevention of cancer at the community level. Methods Data was from 4 retrospective surveys regarding all causes of death during 1970-- 1974, 1985-1989, 1990- 1992 and 2004-2005, in Shandong province. Other than one set of data collected in 1985-1989 by Shandong province itself, the other 3 set of data were from the national surveys, in which the survey-point sampling of choice was based on data of 1970-1974 for assessing its representativeness. The observing indices would include standardized mortality and mortality. A join-point regression model was used to analyze the changing rate of tumor. Results The mortality rate of the entire tumor increased 143.15 percent in 2005 than in 1970. The changing slope of standardized rate of all tumors in the regression model showed that the inter-annual growth rate were 0.54 and 1.24 percent from 1970 to 1984 and from 1985 to 1992. The rate of increase since 1992 had been 0.18 percent. During 2004-2005, the main malignant cancers were lung, stomach, liver, esophageal, coiorectal, leukemia, breast and cervical cancer, in order. Lung cancer rose from the 4th ranking to the first while cervical cancer dropped from the fifth ranking to the 8th place. Esophageal cancer and cervical cancer were decreased annually while gastric cancer was increased in the early days but decreased later on. The rest of the cancers were on the rise year by year. Rates of lung and breast cancers were higher while gastric and esophageal cancers were lower seen in the urban than in rural areas. Conclusion In Shandong province, a marked increase was seen in the mortality rate of tumors in the past 35 years. Evidence showed that the spectrum of death among main malignant tumors had changed which might provide a scientific basis for the development of a community-based prevention and control program on cancer.