Evaluation on current malaria prevalence using capture-recapture method in national sentinel surveillance points malaria / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To explore the feasibility of using the capture-recapture method (CRM) for national malaria sentinel surveillance program and to evaluate the malaria prevalence at those points.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>By CRM to compare data on malaria cases reported from national sentinel surveillance program and those from the registration of case report system (CRS). Analysis was made to express the difference regarding the number of cases in order to get the estimates and the incidence rate.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The incidence in the relative higher epidemic area, unstable epidemic area and relative lower epidemic area were 1247.30/100000, 171.50/100000 and 46.10/100000, respectively. The rate of miss-reporting malaria cases in these areas were 65.20% ,45.32% and 66.67%, respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The situation of the malaria cases in the national sentinel surveillance points could be estimated,using the CRM.</p>