Cyclic patterns of incidence rate for skin malignant melanoma: association with heliogeophysical activity / 浙江大学学报(英文版)(B辑:生物医学和生物技术)
Journal of Zhejiang University. Science. B
;
(12): 489-495, 2008.
Artigo
em Inglês
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-359401
ABSTRACT
<p><b>BACKGROUND</b>Our previous studies revealed cyclicity in the incidence rate of skin malignant melanoma (SMM; ICD9, Dx172) in the Czech Republic (period T=7.50-7.63 years), UK (T=11.00 years) and Bulgaria (T=12.20 years). Incidences compared with the sunspot index Rz (lag-period dT=+2, +4, +6, +10 or +12 years) have indicated that maximal rates are most likely to appear on descending slopes of the 11-year solar cycle, i.e., out of phase. We summarized and explored more deeply these cyclic variations and discussed their possible associations with heliogeophysical activity (HGA) components exhibiting similar cyclicity.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Annual incidences of SMM from 5 countries (Czech Republic, UK, Bulgaria, USA and Canada) over various time spans during the years 1964-1992 were analyzed and their correlations with cyclic Rz (sunspot number) and aa (planetary geomagnetic activity) indices were summarized. Periodogram regression analysis with trigonometric approximation and phase-correlation analysis were applied.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Previous findings on SMM for the Czech Republic, UK and Bulgaria have been validated, and cyclic patterns have been revealed for USA (T=8.63 years, P<0.05) and Canada (Ontario, T=9.91 years, P<0.10). Also, various 'hypercycles' were established (T=45.5, 42.0, 48.25, 34.5 and 26.5 years, respectively) describing long-term cyclic incidence patterns. The association of SMM for USA and Canada with Rz (dT=+6 and +7 years, respectively) and aa (dT=-10 and +9 years, respectively) was described. Possible interactions of cyclic non-photic influences (UV irradiation, Schumann resonance signal, low-frequency geomagnetic fluctuations) with brain waves absorbance, neuronal calcium dynamics, neuro-endocrine axis modulation, melatonin/serotonin disbalance and skin neuro-immunity impairment as likely causal pathways in melanoma appearance, were also discussed.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The above findings on cyclicity and temporal association of SMM with cyclic environmental factors could not only allow for better forecasting models but also lead to a better understanding of melanoma aetiology.</p>
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Índice:
WPRIM (Pacífico Ocidental)
Assunto principal:
Periodicidade
/
Neoplasias Cutâneas
/
Epidemiologia
/
Análise de Regressão
/
Atividade Solar
/
Radiação Cósmica
/
Previsões
/
Melanoma
/
Modelos Biológicos
/
Neoplasias Induzidas por Radiação
Tipo de estudo:
Estudo diagnóstico
/
Estudo de incidência
/
Estudo prognóstico
Limite:
Feminino
/
Humanos
/
Masculino
Idioma:
Inglês
Revista:
Journal of Zhejiang University. Science. B
Ano de publicação:
2008
Tipo de documento:
Artigo
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