The incidence and risk factors of pancreactic cancer in adult patients with chronic pancreatitis / 中华消化杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the incidence and risk factors of pancreatic cancer in patients with painful chronic pancreatitis (CP). Methods Three hundred and ninty-seven patients with painful CP were recruited between Jan. 1997 to July 2007. A life-table method was used to estimate the cumulative probability of the incidence of pancreatic cancer. Cox proportional-hazards model was used for multivariate analysis of the variables including age, sex, drinking and smoking habits, etiological factor, presence of pancreatic masses, pancreatic calcifications, measure of intervention, diabetes mellitus, diarrhea, weight loss and degree of pain. Results Of 397 patients,346 (87.2%) were follow-up for (34.3±27.1)months with 244 males and 102 females(2.41). The mean age of the patients were (47.7 ±13. 7) years and alcoholic origin accounted for 22. 2%. The incidence of the pancreatic cancer was 8.1 % (28/346). There was a high incidence of cancers during the 4 years after the episodes of abdominal pain. The cumulative risks of pancreatic cancer 1, 5 and 10 years after the episodes of pain were 5 %, 5.6% and 11.6% respectively. Cox proportional-hazards model selected age at onset (≥51 years) [hazard rate(HR) = 3. 1], pancreatic calcifications ( HR = 4.1) ,pancreatic masses ( HR = 7. 1 )], no improvement of abdominal pain ( HR = 3. 8), increased frequency of pain (HR= 6.8), no diarrhea (HR= 15.3) as variables identified with pancreatic cancer in painful CP patients. Conclusions Pancreatic cancer should be suspected in patients with CP. The risk factors of pancreatic cancer are age at onset (≥ 51 years), pancreatic calcifications, pancreatic masses, no improvement of abdominal pain, increased frequency of pain and no diarrhea.