Value of model for end-stage liver disease combined with serum sodium in predicting the prognosis of cirrhosis / 中国医师进修杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To evaluate the capability of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)combined with serum sodium (MELD- Na,MELDNa and MESO scores) in predicting the prognosis of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis in 6 and 12 months.Methods One hundred and nineteen patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis and completed follow-up data were retrospectively studied.The MELD,MELD- Na,MELDNa and MESO scores were calculated according to the clinical data of each patient.Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC) was used to measure the values of the four models in predicting the 6 and 12 months survival,and Z-test was used to compare their predictive values.Results MELD,MELD-Na,MELDNa and MESO scores were significantly different between patients who survived and those who died within 6 and 12 months follow-up.The AUC for the MELD- Na,MELDNa and MESO scores were all more than 0.8 in predicting 6 and 12 months survival.However the differences of the AUC between the MELD score and MELD-Na,MELDNa,MESO scores were not significant in predicting 6 and 12 months survival.Conclusion The model for MELD combined with serum sodium can accurately predict the prognosis of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis in 6 and 12 months,while these scores are not superior to MELD score.