Prognostic investigation of AKIN criteria combined with APACHE Ⅱ and SOFA scoring system in acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery / 中华肾脏病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the prognostic value of Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN)criteria combined with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ)and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(SOFA)scoring system in acute kidney injury(AKI)after cardiac surgery. Methods Clinical data of patients who underwent open-heart surgery in Zhongshan Hospital,Fudan University from April 2009 to August 2009 were prospectively collected.AKI after cardiac surgery was classified by AKIN staging system.APACHE Ⅱ and SOFA scores were evaluated according to the worst value of physiologic variables in the 1st 24 h after surgery.Discrimination and calibration of these three models were assessed by receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.Besides,their effects on inhospital mortality were evaluated by multivariate Logistic regression analysis. Results Of the 993 admissions,309 patients developed AKI and the incidence was 31.1%.The median time that developed postoperative AKI and reached the Scr peak were 1 d and 2 d respectively.Either APACHE Ⅱ or SOFA scores,which was positively correlted with the severity of AKI(APACHEⅡr=0.37,P<0.01;SOFA r=0.42,P<0.01)was higher in AKI patients compared with that in nonAKI patients(P<0.01).The mortality rose corresponding to the severity of kidney injury.However,the predicted death rate-adjusted(PDR-A)calculated by APACHE Ⅱ scoreS Was higher than the actual value in non-AKI patients and AKIN stage 1(P<0.01),while it was lower in AKIN stage 3 (P<0.01).The areas under the ROC curve of APACHEⅡ,SOFA and AKIN criteria were all above 0.8 and the results of Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test indicated good calibration of three models.Multivariate analysis showed that APACHE Ⅱ≥19(OR=4.26)and AKIN stage 3(OR=76.151 were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Conclusions AKI can be classified by AKIN criteria in the early stage after cardiac surgery and the AKIN staging system may serve the prediction of prognosis.The APACHE Ⅱ and SOFA scores just evaluated in the 1st 24 h after operation can discern the severity of patients'illness.Three models all present good discrimination and calibration in predicting patients'outcome.APACHE Ⅱ≥19 along with AKIN stage 3 are found to be the independent predictors of in-hospital mortality.It should be noticed that the deviation between PDR-A and the actual mortality in subgroups,dynamic evaluation may raise the accuracy of scoring system.