Prognostic indicators for systemic lupus erythematosus analyzed by Cox proportional hazards model / 中华风湿病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the prognostic factors and causes of death of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).Methods A database with 319 patients were developed.They were newly diagnosed SLE in the Department of Rheumatology and Immunology,Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School from 1999 to 2009.Normal distribution of measurement data was presented using mean±standard deviation.The skewed distribution of data was described by median(interquartile range).Using the rate or proportions,the character of classification data was also stated.Survival rate of SLE patients over time was studied by the Kaplan-Meier method,and prognostic factors were analyzed by COX proportional hazards model.Results The 5 year and 10-year survival rates was 96.2%, 88.7%, respectively Prognostic factors affecting survival included duration from onset to diagnosis, anemia, white blood cells in urine, low serum albumin,low C4 level,abnormal ECG and ultrasound echocardiography, pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index (SLEDAI). However, PAH,duration from onset to diagnosis, low serum albumin were the independent poor prognostic factors and the relative risk and 95% confidence interval were 2.419 (1.052-5.564), 1.162 (1.043-1.294), 0.924 (0.873-0.978), respectively. Renal failure, pulmonary hypertension and infection were the main causes of death,followed by multiple organ failure and lupus encephalopathy. Conclusion PAH, duration from onset to diagnosis, low serum albumin are the important factors predicting poor prognosis. Early diagnosis, timely treatment of SLE organ damages and preventing complications are the key factors to improve the prognosis of patients with SLE.