Comparative validation of MSKCC and SOC models for predicting non-sentinel lymph node metastasis in Chinese breast cancer patients / 中国肿瘤临床

ABSTRACT

Objective:The study aimed to validate the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomogram and Stan-ford Online Calculator (SOC) prediction of non-sentinel lymph node (NSLN) metastasis in Chinese patients with sentinel lymph node (SLN)-positive breast cancers. Methods:The MSKCC nomogram and SOC were used to calculate the probability of NSLN metastasis in 120 breast cancer patients who were positive for SLNs. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) for each model was evaluated. Patients with 10%and 90%probabilities of NSLN metastasis were separately examined. Results:The MSKCC and SOC predicted the likelihood of NSLN metastasis in a consecutive group of 120 patients with AUCs of 0.688 and 0.734, respective-ly. At the lowest probability cutoff value of 10%, the false-negative rates of MSKCC and SOC were both 4.4%, and the negative predic-tive values were 75.0%and 90.0%, respectively. When the highest probability cutoff value of 90%was used, the false-positive rates were 0.0%and 6.7%, and the positive predictive values were 100.0%and 68.8%, respectively. Conclusion:Results of the MSKCC no-mogram and SOC were inferior to those of previous studies on predicting NSLN metastasis in Chinese patients with breast cancers. The prediction ability of SOC was slightly superior to that of the MSKCC nomogram.